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Long -Term Morphodynamic Modeling of Climate Change in Estuaries

  • 1 September, 2016
  • IHE Delft, Coastal & Urban Risk & Resilience
  • J.A. Roelvink
  • Dr. M. van der Wegen

Scientific evidence shows a clear unprecedented climate change trend. Estuaries are delicate ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to climatic changes, they are one the most productive ecosystems in the world with a high economic and environmental value. Climate change induced variations as sea level rise effects their morphological development, the altered forcing conditions result in a perturbation that causes the system to start shifting towards a new morphological equilibrium. The current concern is that the system will not be able to cope with those changes and will head towards an undesirable state that impacts human welfare and the estuarine environment sustainability.
Nowadays, there is an urgent need for performing morphological forecasts under different climate change scenarios. However, the many challenges involved in the modeling process make it one of the least predicted and understood aspects. The main aim of this project is to contribute towards developing a better understanding of climate change impact on the long-term morphological development of estuaries.
This work provides a contribution towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals defined by the UN, with the focus upon Climate Action (Goal 13). This will help in raising awareness about the imminent threat of climate change to the general public and policy makers. The proposed measures will aid in developing sustainable management policies to safeguard the valuable estuarine environment. Also, the findings of this research are extremely valuable as they can be applied in estuaries worldwide. This eventually paves the way for understanding climate change impacts on estuaries in developing countries where studies and data are scarce.


Hesham Elmilady

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