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Impacts of spatio-temporal distributal rainfall on hydrological flood response

  • 31 December, 2014
  • IHE Delft, Hydroinformatics and Socio-Technical Innovation
  • Prof.dr.D.P. Solomatine
  • Dr. G.A. Corzo Perez

The research explores the impacts of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the flood risk assessment into a robust flood forecasting system. The flood model is a coupled flood forecasting system integrated by distributed hydrological model and two dimensional hydrodynamic model. This methodology uses a Monte Carlo framework structured in two levels representing different sources of uncertainty (aleatory and epistemic uncertainty). In the first level, aleatory uncertainty is analyzed due to the increase of frequency and magnitude in the rainfall and changes in the behaviour of social distribution. The second level explores the epistemic uncertainty as a product of individual uncertainties in the hydrological and hydrodynamic model and its implication in the flood hazard. This analysis also explores uncertainties in extreme value statistics caused by the type of the distribution function.

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Researcher

Miguel Angel Laverde Barajas

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