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Navigating the Storm – New Approaches to Tropical Cyclone Risk Analyses and Their Implications for Coastal Flooding Predictions

  • 20 June, 2024
  • 14:30-16:30
  • TU Delft Aula, Mekelweg 5, Senaatszaal
  • IHE Delft, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
  • Professor Dano Roelvink
  • Dr. Ap van DongerenDr. José Antolínez

This dissertation delves into the dynamics of tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes or typhoons) focusing on their role in coastal flooding, a phenomenon worsened by climate change and increased human activity. It aims to enhance flood risk analysis and forecasting accuracy by improving the descriptions of cyclones’ wind geometry and pathways. The study distinguishes between operational risk analysis, which deals with short-term forecasting surrounding a cyclone event, and strategic risk analysis, which considers long-term climate variability and its impacts over decades. Significant advancements have been made in several aspects including accurately representing tropical cyclone conditions through the empirical derivation of stochastic relationships for key storm size parameters. Furthermore, the thesis introduces a novel methodology for strategic risk analysis using computer-generated storm pathways (synthetic tracks) to overcome the limitations of historical data scarcity. The research also compares cyclone-induced flooding to other sources for a case study in the United States, revealing the predominant role of tropical cyclones in severe flood hazards despite a higher frequency of flooding that is caused by extratropical cyclones. Moreover, this dissertation presents a new operational risk assessment framework capable of simulating thousands of scenarios to aid in effective storm forecasting, particularly in regions lacking extensive data.

 

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Mr. Kees Nederhoff

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