The world has entered a human-dominated epoch where human development is shaping the local environment as well as the earth system. As food and water demands of a growing and more prosperous population likely increase in the coming decades, quantification of the trade-offs and synergies between agriculture, water and climate change is important. My thesis quantified whether sufficient agricultural production is achievable under sustainable water management and climate change using the VIC-WOFOST hydrology-crop model
My results show irrigation withdrawals should be severely constrained under sustainable water management. These constraints result in substantial agricultural production reductions. In particular croplands in the Indus basin and Pakistan would be severely affected. Moreover, temperature increases under climate change likely adversely affects agriculture in the Indus basin and Pakistan. However, timely implementation of agricultural adaptation has the opportunity to increase agricultural production and provide cereal self-sufficiency in Pakistan, even under sustainable water management.